This is a very important question which is especially relevant to some of the fears that have arisen since we are so close to Geula. It will also provide an answer to those who are skeptical of the proximity of redemption based on what they perceive as a lack of observance by most Jewish people or the so called shortcomings of the orthodox.
The answer to this question is yes - redemption does depend on national Jewish repentance i.e. internal transformation will lead to the worlds external transformation BUT the repentance will come through a divine revelation in the world which will coincide with the revelation of Moshiach. The prerequisite for the Divine revelation which will spark this process has already been achieved.
How doe we know this?
In the Talmud there is a dispute whether redemption will come thorough repentance or not. Rabbi Eliezer holds it will while R' Yehoshua says the sufferings of exile will suffice (paraphrasing). After back and forth replies R' Yehoshua brings proof from Daniel that the exile has a set end date and then Rabbi Eliezer is silent. So it seems from this discussion that Rabbi Yehoshua's opinion is dominant. On the other hand the Rambam clearly rules the redemption depends completely on repentance! The Rambam even writes "The Torah Guarantees that in the end the Jewish people will repent and will immediately be redeemed". This ruling is puzzling since it implies from the Talmud the opposite and at best its unclear. Another problem is that the masters of Chassidic thought held that the redemption will occur in Nissan as opposed to the opinion that holds it will come in Tishrei. A Nissan redemption means - a redemption prompted by a revelation from G-d (like passover) , while a Tishrei redemption is one that would be prompted by mans actions. How could the masters of Chassidic thought determine it will be a Divinely inspired redemption (Nissan) when the Rambam rules it all depends of mans repentance?
The Rebbe explains in the Ma'amer Hachodesh Haze that both are true. There will be a great loving divine revelation (Moshiach) which will reveal the essential bond between the Jewish people and G-d. The recognition/revelation of this bond will draw all Jewish people back to their faith and kick off the redemption. This ultimate return will be of a higher quality than the passover redemption since this time we will be ready vessels for it , as opposed to passover when they had to "rush out" of exile. The previous Rebbe explains in the Ma'amer "a redeemer will come to zion" that this is what it means when it says "man and man will give birth" - that even though it will be a "male" revelation i.e. from G-d , there will still be birth - complete inner transformation.
There is a still a question , the Rebbe stated many times that Teshuva , repentance has been done. This statement of the Rebbe was based on the declaration of the previous Rebbe that WW2 was part of the birth pangs of Moshiach and after that he declared "right away to repentance , right away to redemption". So how does the Rebbe's assurance that repentance is completed fit in? In short there are two stages of repentance. The previous Rebbe writes in the Ma'amer " and a redeemer will come to Zion" that there will be two stages of return one which will take place before the Great shofar will sound and one which will take place after the great shofar. The second one will cause all Jewish people to have an inner transformation while for many the first one may not seem to affect. The Rebbe's revelation is that we have completed the Teshuva, repentance, needed for the final revelation and nothing at all stands in its way.
There is alot more supportive information for this - and hopefully i will work on this a bit more for greater clarity.
The lesson is simply the following
a) We all need to return to Hashem , and we will - but it is nothing to be scared of and Hashem will soon help us all get there with great loving kindness by revealing Moshiach.
b) anyone who says redemption isn't happening because we havent done enough repentance in a negative way has it backward.
Have an easy fast
